When you see Yahoo offer $1.1B in cash for Tumblr or it pays $30M for Summly, the reactions around the world range from kudos to the founders and initial investors, to “I’ll have some of what they are smoking”! But most of the time, there is some sanity behind all that madness but there have been times when it has been more of insanity as at the peak of the Dot.com boom, in the early 2000’s. The question is a confounding, personal one, whether it’s your start-up company that you are trying to value, or considering investing in one. Company valuations are usually a science when it is a mature company with products already in the market, with revenues and profits. It moves more to the Art side of the continuum, the more early stage, the start-up is. It is different if you are consumer or enterprise focused, pre-revenue or post, traditional software model or SaaS based. It is better to be armed with a toolkit of various valuation approaches, picking and choosing what may apply in a specific situation. Typically valuations could be arrived at as a cumulative of various components all added up together as appropriate. Some of the approaches that make up this toolkit, when and where they may be applicable, are:
a. Asset Valuation: If the company has a product and is making revenues already, the current contracts, and those close to signing, may have their own value and these need to be added up to the revenues and hence, the value of the company. The cost to replace existing assets can also be used to add to the valuation, especially in acqui-hire kinds of situations – where a company buys another company for its engineers and talent, rather than the products themselves. This may be of special interest in start-ups based in India. How much time and effort would it take for another company to assemble the talent and experiences the employees of your company may represent? In the simplest case you can add up all the recruitment expenses for assembling the talent you have over the years adding a premium for the time-value of the whole thing!
b. Similar Company Comparisons: There is nothing like comparables with recent valuations of companies similar to yours, in business model and stage of development. Other companies that have received funding recently may be good justifications for your own valuations. This is why networking not just with VCs and Angels but also fellow startup company founders and chief executives is important. They should feel comfortable enough with you to share this kind of highly confidential information with you! Think about it!
c. Market Size and Growth Potential: For those that think “why should Tumblr be valued at $1.1B”, have you looked at the first year revenues of Google and Facebook? In no other industry would you see companies go from $0 to $1B in as short a time as some of these companies with just ad revenues! Traditional brick and mortar companies would take decades to reach this level of revenues! According to Yahoo!’s May 20 letter to shareholders, Tumblr site has 300 million active monthly users, meaning, Yahoo! is paying around $3 per user, while Facebook paid around $30 per Instagram user; apparently Yahoo! is doing a good deal. So as this article on The Motley Fool says, it’s all about traffic, stupid! Eyeballs may not be dead if you can make it work still, although it will be harder these days! This is where we may want to think about the advantages of going global vs going for the Indian market alone! The Indian Smartphone Market has grown from 4% growth to 6% growth from 2012 to 2013! So it may may still make sense to focus on the Global consumer smartphone market instead of the Indian market alone if you want to grow fast! But the SMB market in India seems to be large already and growing at a reasonable rate! So if your startup is focusing on the Indian SMB market, market, more power to you!
d. Intellectual Property, Barriers to Entry and Ecosystem Building Potential: Think about Microsoft SQL server or The Oracle Database Management system. Think about the millions of people around the globe that make a living out of these ecosystems – providing skills in these products, skills in the applications built around these products, having jobs around the globe with companies that use these products and applications built around them. Those are ecosystems! These are worth trillions of dollars just around the ecosystem building potential of these! Google and facebook are in the process of building their own ecosystems now. If your Intellectual Property is anything like this, you may want to increase your valuations proportionately. What barriers to entry have you built around your technology? What prevents any tom, dick and harry from replicating what you do? If that’s solid, it’s worth a lot of money and you can confidently reflect that in your valuation and articulate the same to your investors. Here’s a link that explains different kinds of ecosystems you can build!
e. Income Valuation Approaches: If your start-up already has revenues and profits, the Income Valuation approach may be used to arrive at the income component of the valuation. The usual methods used are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods. At their essential simplicity, they are estimating future revenues and profits and arriving at the Discounted Present Value of those profits given an interest rate. For example, if you are projecting profits of $100, $150 and $300 at the end of years 3, 4 and 5, what are their current values? What amounts today if invested at say 8% would yield incomes of $100, $150 and $300 in years 3,4 and 5?, You add those profit values as of today and calculate valuations based on those! Usually Earnings Before Interest, Depreciation and Taxes (EBITDA) are used instead of Net Profits since EBITDA reflects much more accurately the exact earnings potential of your startup! You can also use some rough rules of thumb for valuations based on sales – Horizontal Software between 1.35x and 2.1x. Vertical Software from 1.4x to 2.1x. Consumer Software a bit lower, 0.5x to a just under 1x sales. Infrastructure – 1.5x to 2.5x sales. Internet and Software is 2.19x to 2.7x. IT Services, which is people intensive, is lower, 0.6x to 0.74x. The actual numbers don’t matter as much as the difference in how different kinds of startup companies are valued, in relation to each other and why.
f. Scarcity Premiums: The basic principles of Economics – Demand and Supply may apply to startup company valuations, just as well. If too many investors are chasing after a limited number of shares available in a start-up company, the valuation goes up! This is the reason you need to create an imbalance between investors interested in your company and the number of investors and the money you are willing to take in – creating a scarcity! This is also the reason you need to start build as big a network of investors way before you need them to invest in you! You expand your demand way ahead of time! However, Scarcity Premiums can come back to bite you in your next round of investments if you have oversold your value and cannot meet your revenue, profit or product development goals before the next round. Down rounds are no fun! If you raise this round at a high valuation and the next round is a down round, your company may be perceived as a failure. That’s why you need to be careful about taking money at higher valuations, even if you could!
h. Insanity Premiums: There have been times like the Dot.Com boom when insane valuations prevailed and entrepreneurs took full advantage of them. Mark Cuban sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo.com for $5.7B . This is acknowledged as one of the worst acquisitions in history! Mark Cuban was not the worse off from this deal since he cashed out and moved on to other investments on his own. If it’s not a total exit, the same caveat about subsequent down rounds still may apply!
As a start up company, you owe it to yourself to take a systematic approach to valuing your own company and conveying your logic to your investors if they ask for it. In the worst case, experienced investors may choose the methodology that gives you the worst valuation and you can be ready with your own bargaining position with careful, considered logic and a better valuation!
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. – Warren Buffett